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BCR Research: In Romania crisis may end in 2010
BCR Research has presented it's quarterly report about Romanian economy evolution, called "Romania- Catching its breath" .Reportcontaines an overview of the 3Q09 macro developments and an outlook for 2010 based on the latest trends in the economy. Signed by Dr. Lucian Anghel, Chief Economist of BCR, the report is based on datas from National Statistics Institute (INS).
Main conclusions are:
The economic contraction slowed down in 3Q09; Romania could exit the recession in 4Q09 or 1Q10 in q/q terms, if the trends in the Eurozone continue to improve; net exports made a positive contribution to GDP growth in 3Q09
Although depressed, industry continued to recover y/y in 3Q09; external demand was an upward driver in industry, while the domestic counterpart remained sluggish; a full recovery of local industry will be difficult without the help of domestic demand
Agriculture surprised to upside in 3Q09 and made a strong positive contribution to GDP formation (1pp); unlike 2008, when production in agriculture was affected in late summer and autumn by less favorable weather conditions, the weather held up this time, with maize production up almost 10%
Residential and commercial segments in construction sector deepened their fall; developments in infrastructure were somewhat better than in the previous quarter
The labor market was strained by the recession; unemployment has risen constantly in the last year - mostly in the private sector, where various industries have faced major challenges, triggered by demand contraction (both domestically and abroad)
The external imbalance has seen a “fast and furious” adjustment; the foreign trade deficit continued to fall in 3Q09, with machines & transport equipment again reporting the strongest adjustment
Disinflation continued in 3Q09 amid mixed signals from the market; however, inflation is likely to overshoot inflation target as of end-2009
Fiscal consolidation is the name of the game in the years ahead; after a strong pro-cyclical fiscal policy in recent years, which fuelled the macroeconomic imbalances, Romania should undergo a painful but necessary fiscal consolidation program in the following years
Tags: BCR Research, INS, crisis, report, Lucian Anghel
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